“Project Cassandra” is a collaboration between the German Federal Ministry of Defense and the Global Ethic Institute aimed at early crisis detection and violence prevention. Since 2017, the research team led by Prof. Dr. Jürgen Wertheimer has been investigating how literary texts can be utilized as predictive tools in the field of violence prevention.
Situated within the realm of cultural leverage for the strategic prevention of crises and armed conflicts, the study’s approach complements existing prevention strategies.
The research team is developing a predictive model based on the analysis of qualitative data (literary texts/narratives) designed to identify developments during the latent phase of a potential violent conflict over a period of 3 to 5 years. To this end, the research team uses model analyses to examine text- and context-based indicators—such as thematic foci, censorship, text forms, and reception patterns/reception intensity/reception radius—for their predictive power regarding conflict intensity.
The goal is to develop indicators, identify easily overlooked signals such as key themes, emotional dynamics, and trends (“weak signals”), and potential (violent) dynamics in a “Conflict and Emotion Map,” as well as to formulate concrete measures for various phases of the conflict (e.g., counter-narratives).
Previous model analyses in the study have focused on the Kosovo-Serbia conflict (1970–1999), the conflict involving the Islamist group Boko Haram in Nigeria (2009–2019), the Biafra conflict in southeastern Nigeria (2009–2019), and a text analysis of Algeria in the run-up to and context of the 2019 election crisis. The research team is currently working on analyses of Kosovo, the Caucasus region, and the Sahel.
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